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Inflation rises to 3-month high of 5.55% in November

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Inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 4.87% in October and 5.88% in November 2022, the government data released showed

New Delhi: Snapping its declining trend, retail inflation rose to a three-month high of 5.55% in November on firming food prices, including vegetables and cereals, though it remains within the RBI’s comfort zone of less than 6%.

Inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 4.87% in October and 5.88% in November 2022, the government data released on Tuesday showed.

The previous high was 6.83% in August and inflation has been on a decline since then.

According to the National Statistical Office (NSO) data, inflation in the food basket increased to 8.7% in November from 6.61% in October and 4.67% in the year-ago month.

Food basket has about 50% weightage in CPI.

The annual rate of price rise in ‘spices’ was 21.55%, ‘pulses and products’ 20.23%, vegetables 17.7%, and fruits 10.95%. The year-on-year inflation in ‘cereals and products’ was 10.27%.

However, there was a decline in retail prices of ‘oil and facts’ was about 15%.

Data further showed that inflation in rural areas was at 5.85% while it was 5.26% in urban centres taking the national average to 5.55% during November.

The Reserve Bank of India has been tasked by the government to ensure retail inflation remains at 4% with a margin of 2% on either side.

In the monetary policy announced last week, the RBI projected the CPI inflation at 5.4% for 2023-24, with a reading of 5.6% in the third quarter and 5.2% in the last quarter.

Among the states, inflation was the highest in Odisha at 7.65%. Other states which witnessed inflation of more than 6% were Bihar, Gujarat, Haryana, Karnataka, Punjab, Telangana, and Rajasthan.

Delhi witnessed the lowest inflation at 3.1%.

Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA said that the surge in food and beverages inflation to 8% in November was largely led by a sharp increase in vegetables inflation, even as seven of the 12 food sub-groups reported a moderation in their year-on-year inflation print.

She further noted the core CPI inflation eased to 4.2% in November 2023 from 4.4% in October 2023.

“This was the lowest print in the post-pandemic period. The sustained easing in the core CPI inflation is positive and has counterbalanced the menacing food inflation prints over the last few months,” Nayar said.

NSO collects the price data from selected 1,114 urban markets and 1,181 villages covering across the country on a weekly roster.

During November 2023, NSO collected prices from 99.9% of villages and 98.6% of urban markets.

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