The report identifies India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines as key drivers of global trade growth. India is expected to retain its third-place position in absolute trade volume and jump 15 places to 17th in growth rate
New Delhi: DHL and the New York University Stern School of Business have released the latest DHL Trade Atlas 2025, providing an in-depth analysis of global trade trends. The report highlights that global trade is expected to grow at a faster pace over the next five years than in the previous decade, with Asia continuing to play a central role. India, along with Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines, is projected to be among the fastest-growing economies in both trade volume and growth rate from 2024 to 2029. The report also forecasts that South Asia and Southeast Asia will outpace other regions in terms of trade expansion.
Ken Lee, CEO – Asia Pacific, DHL Express, noted that Asia’s trade growth has remained resilient despite recent global disruptions. He emphasized that ongoing supply chain diversification is reinforcing Asia’s position as a key global market player. However, he cautioned that businesses must remain adaptable and innovative amid uncertainties in the global economic environment. Commenting on India’s role in global trade, R. S. Subramanian, SVP South Asia, DHL Express, highlighted the country’s growing significance as a critical trade hub linking the East and West. While trade volume growth and an increase in India’s global trade share are expected, he acknowledged the need to stay vigilant given economic volatility. South Asia is anticipated to witness the fastest trade volume growth among all global regions between 2024 and 2029, creating significant opportunities for businesses in the region.
The report identifies India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines as key drivers of global trade growth. India is expected to retain its third-place position in absolute trade volume and jump 15 places to 17th in growth rate, with its compound annual trade volume growth rate rising from 5.2% to 7.2%. The country is forecast to contribute 6% of global trade growth, ranking behind China at 12% and the United States at 10%. Vietnam is projected to sustain a 6.5% annual trade volume growth rate and move up to the fifth position in absolute trade volume. Indonesia is set to retain its 12th-place ranking in absolute volume while improving its speed ranking from 33rd to 25th. The Philippines, in particular, is expected to see remarkable progress, leaping 114 places to rank 15th in growth rate and rising from 68th to 30th in absolute trade volume.
South Asia and the ASEAN region are forecast to achieve the fastest trade volume growth among major world regions from 2024 to 2029, with projected compound annual growth rates of 5.6% and 5.0%, respectively. Trade growth in these regions is also expected to accelerate significantly compared to the previous five-year period, while North America and Europe are projected to grow at a more modest 2.7%. The report also highlights a shift in the global trade landscape, with Asia’s share of world trade rising from 2% in 2000 to 5% in 2024. In contrast, Europe’s share declined from 41% to 36% during the same period.
Despite growing discussions around nearshoring, the DHL Trade Atlas 2025 finds that global trade has become more extensive rather than regionalized. In the first nine months of 2024, the average distance covered by traded goods reached a record 5,000 kilometres, up from just over 4,500 kilometres in 2000. This trend is attributed to increased trade between Europe, North America, and Asia, reinforcing Asia’s role as a global production hub.
Global trade is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 3.1% from 2024 to 2029, aligning with GDP growth and representing a modest acceleration compared to the previous decade. Even in scenarios where the new U.S. administration implements proposed tariff increases and other countries respond with countermeasures, global trade is expected to maintain a growth trajectory, albeit at a slower pace. Steven A. Altman, Senior Research Scholar and Director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern’s Center for the Future of Management, emphasized that while geopolitical challenges persist, global trade has demonstrated resilience due to its significant economic and social benefits. He added that while the U.S. may retreat from trade policies, other nations are unlikely to follow suit, given the detrimental impact such a move would have on smaller economies.
The DHL Trade Atlas 2025 serves as a comprehensive resource for business leaders, policymakers, researchers, and the general public. It provides one-page profiles of nearly 200 countries and territories, covering over 99% of global trade, GDP, and population. A new interactive feature available at dhl.com/tradeatlas allows users to explore trade trends by country, region, and product category, offering customized analyses and downloadable insights.
Commissioned by DHL and authored by Steven A. Altman and Caroline R. Bastian of the New York University Stern School of Business, the report was finalized in February 2025 using data and forecast updates through January 2025.
